2020.09 [译] "接下来会如何" (What Comes Next)
看到这篇文章是因为 Shadders 的 Twitter：
I took some space to clear my head. I'd been building on Bitcoin for 18 months straight, and my original plan wasn't working.
What did I get wrong?
Timing really is everything, and being early to the party is the same thing as not showing up.
My original goal with Bit.sv was to enable creators to make a full-time living using Bitcoin.
我最初使用 Bit.sv 的目标是让创作者能够全职使用比特币谋生。
I had an "aha moment" when building Open Directory, a Reddit-style link aggregator on Bitcoin. At scale, Open Directory wouldn't just replace Reddit, but Patreon too.
在构建开放目录(Open Directory)时，我有一个“顿悟时刻” ，这是一个类似 reddit 的比特币链接聚合器。从规模的角度，开放目录不仅仅取代了 Reddit，还取代了 Patreon。
This was a major wake up call. I realized the Internet had been playing with one hand tied behind it's back. The Internet was broken, in a way that not many people understood, but suprisingly almost everybody in BSV did.
这是一个重要的警钟。我意识到互联网的问题所在，一只手被绑在背后。互联网被破坏了，以一种不是很多人都能理解的方式，但令人惊讶的是几乎每个 BSV 的人都能理解。
I ran as fast as I could in the direction I thought best. I built Bit.sv in a way that's still underappreciated today. Bit.sv solves de-platforming. It solves owning your data. It enables a federated service provider model, where customers get to decide which provider they use with 1-click. Everything is encrypted. Bit.sv is the only consumer application on the Metanet.
我以最快的速度向我认为最好的方向跑去。我创建 Bit.sv 的方式，在今天仍然没有得到充分的重视。 Bit.sv 解决了去平台化问题。它解决了拥有你的数据的问题。它支持联合服务提供者模型，客户可以通过单击一次来决定使用哪个提供者。所有东西都加密了。 Bit.sv 是 Metanet 上唯一的面向消费者的应用。
It turns out, none of this matters.... at least not yet.
事实证明，这些都不重要... ... 至少现在还不重要。
I built for a world where there are a dozen Twetch's, a dozen Bit.sv's, and a dozen PowPings — all competing on the same protocols to give the customer the best experience.
我建立的世界里，有十几家 Twetch’s、十几家 Bit.sv’s 和十几家 power---- 它们都在同一个协议上竞争，以给客户提供最佳体验。
What I got wrong is we don't live in that world yet.
Almost nobody knows about BSV. Even fewer have BSV they can spend. Onboarding is still a significant problem.
几乎没有人知道 BSV，有 BSV 可以拿来花的就更少了。 “上车” 仍然是一个重要的问题。
The BSV ecosystem debates endlessly consumer vs prosumer vs enterprise adoption — but the reality is after 12 years Bitcoin still hasn't had a breakout app. If we're being fair, a store of value is the closest thing, and DeFi is the second.
BSV 生态系统无休止地争论消费者、生产者和企业采用的问题ーー但现实是，12年过去了，比特币仍然没有突破性的应用。如果我们是公平的，价值储存是最接近的东西，DeFi 是第二。
But people in BSV know better, they understand what an entire world running on Bitcoin would look like, a better, more fair world.
但是 BSV 的人知道的更多，他们知道整个世界运行在比特币上会是什么样子，一个更好，更公平的世界。
Which is why I've been so excited to be a part of what's happening in BSV.
这就是为什么我如此兴奋能够成为 BSV 的一份子。
From the outside, people think BSVers are scammers. They think by supporting BSV, they're supporting Craig's claim to Satoshi, and they're enabling him. They're complicit. They think everybody is being financially supported by Calvin (this one might actually be true 😜).
从表面上看，人们认为 bsver 是骗子。他们认为，这些支持 BSV 的人，是在支持 “Craig 是 Satoshi” 的主张，而且正是他们“激活”了 Craig。他们是同谋。他们认为每个人都得到了加尔文的经济支持(这个可能是真的，嘻嘻)。
What those people don't understand is you can have two completely different opinions about Craig/Calvin and Bitcoin, and they don't need to intersect. After all, Bitcoin enables you to work with people you don't trust.
If people had to be accountable for everybody using their favorite blockchain....we'd be in trouble.
The reality many don't want to accept is, Craig is pitch-perfect on Bitcoin. You may not like it, but I bet you couldn't steelman his view. Almost nobody outside BSV understands BSV, because if they did, they'd instantly join once they understood the implications.
许多人不愿接受的现实是，克雷格对比特币的理解完美无缺。你也许不喜欢，但我敢打赌你不能 (steelman 含义存疑) 他的观点。几乎没有 BSV 以外的人理解 BSV，因为如果他们理解了，一旦他们理解了其中的含义，他们就会立即加入。
There's this big debate whether Calvin saved Bitcoin. Does it matter? I'd say so, if he did, he should get the credit. Would Bitcoin have survived without him? Definitely. Would we be in a far worse off spot? Definitely. Calvin has made a significant contribution to Bitcoin, and that's super respectable.
关于 Calvin 是否拯救了比特币，有很大的争论。这重要吗？我会这么说，如果他这么做了，他应该得到荣誉。如果没有他，比特币还能存活吗？当然。我们会不会处于一个更糟糕的境地？当然。卡尔文对比特币做出了重大贡献，这是非常值得尊敬的。
There's a lot of people building incredible things on Bitcoin. Bitcoin really does bring out the dreamers.
And for the dreamers, Bitcoin is packed full of surprises.
It's a software meme that every app evolves until it's a social network that supports messaging and money — but with Bitcoin, you start there.
A stable protocol is the single most underrated feature of any distributed blockchain. Decentralization is about the decentralization of power, which means removing control from everyone, especially developers. Segwit and Replace-By-Fee fundamentally broke Bitcoin, and if you don't understand why, you don't understand Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a balanced economic incentive system, if you change the economic incentives, you've changed the system.
稳定的协议是任何分布式块环链中最被低估的特性。去中心化是关于权力的去中心化，这意味着从每个人手中剥夺控制权，尤其是开发者。Segwit 和 Replace-By-Fee 从根本上破坏了比特币，如果你不知道为什么，你就不会理解比特币。比特币是一个平衡的经济激励系统，如果你改变了经济激励，你就改变了系统。
0-confirmation is safe and works so well it forces you to readjust your mental model for how global connectivity will evolve when the networking layer is incentivized. Payment channels provide additional off-chain scalability techniques. Instant & realtime Bitcoin is a solved problem. And unlike Lightning, 0-conf helps reduce fees over time, doesn't reduce the security model of the network, isn't a strangle fig, doesn't turn you into an unauthorized money transmitter, doesn't erase the trail of money laundering, doesn't need custodial apps, never "fails to route" transactions—it actually works. Lightning was never needed.
The fairest way to scale Bitcoin is to say the market should determine the block size, not a tiny group of developers. Welcome to BSV, happy to have you. Bitcoin scales like nothing you've seen before. In 10 years, it bootstrapped a mining industry out of thin air. Creating profit motives to optimize miner performance is something Bitcoin does extremely well.
On BSV, almost all wallets support privacy features like "no address re-use" and some even support more advanced features like "Output Bills coin-splitting", ways to legally keep your privacy while using Bitcoin without mingling your funds with criminals (what do you think mixers do? or where do you think DeFi yields are coming from?). For a privacy-conscious bunch, BTC sure doesn't take many measures to protect the privacy of its customers. It's common to have a single Bitcoin address you re-use over and over, revealing your entire transaction history publicly, and many don't have any of the privacy features supported by most BSV wallets.
在 BSV 上，几乎所有的钱包都支持“不重用地址”等隐私功能，有些甚至支持“输出硬币分割”等更高级的功能，这些功能可以合法地保护你的隐私，同时使用比特币而不会让你的资金与犯罪分子混在一起(你认为混合器会做什么？或者你认为 DeFi 的收益来自哪里?).作为一个注重隐私的群体，BTC 并没有采取很多措施来保护其客户的隐私。有一个单一的比特币地址是很常见的，你重复使用一遍又一遍，公开披露你的整个交易历史，许多 BSV 钱包 (此处疑为 BTC) 并没有支持什么像样的隐私功能。
Bitcoin is Turing complete (Craig, right again), which means Bitcoin can run any computation, any smart contract, anything. We never needed Ethereum. Bitcoin is the World Computer. Hope you've been brushing up on your Forth.
比特币是图灵完整的(Craig 又是对的) ，这意味着比特币可以运行任何计算，任何智能合同，任何东西。我们从来不需要以太。比特币是世界电脑。希望你一直在温习你的 Forth 技能。
UTXOs are a brilliant software design that allows Bitcoin transactions (scripts) to be processed in parallel. Ethereum's global state means every action needs to be performed on every node. Bitcoin could always scale from day one. It initially had a block limit because satoshis didn't have any value, which made market-based block sizes a DDoS attack vector. This hasn't been a problem for over 10 years, but it took BSV to push the system (aka use the damn thing).
UTXOs 是一个出色的软件设计，允许比特币交易(脚本)并行处理。Ethereum 的全局状态意味着每个操作都需要在每个节点上执行。比特币的扩容从第一天起就是成立的。区块最初的上限是因为，在这些币还没有价值的时候，由市场决定的区块尺寸是一个 DDoS 攻击向量。10年来这都不是一个问题，直至其由 BSV 来推动的那一刻。
Proof-of-Work is a consensus model where winners must continually reinvest profits to stay at the bleeding edge to stay competitive. It ensures anybody can join the system, with any consensus changes happening through hard-fork. Proof-of-Stake is a consensus model where winners with the most money determine the rules of the system. As the basis for a global system, one of those sounds fair and one of those doesn't.
Whatever your political affiliation, Bitcoin has something for you, it's the socialism that capitalist want and the capitalism that socialist want. It's a fair system, that enables free trade between private citizens, with the ability to solve the tragedy of the commons-style game theory problems commonly associated with public goods. Bitcoin adds an Oracle to humanity.
Everybody in cryptocurrency is talking about incentivized social media, de-platforming, fair news, scaling, low tx fees, world computers — hello, wake up. It's 2020 and Bitcoin is not what your grandma thinks it is. Actually, respect to grandma, she has a better chance of understanding Bitcoin in 2020 than most crypto investors. It's a global optimization machine that sucks energy wherever it's least useful and provides a socially scalable way for humanity to connect, collaborate and level up.
加密货币领域的每个人都在谈论激励社交媒体、去平台化、公平新闻、扩展、低 tx 费用、全球计算机——喂，醒醒吧。现在是2020年，比特币并不是你奶奶所认为的那样。事实上，对于老奶奶来说，她比大多数加密投资者更有机会在2020年理解比特币。它是一个全球性的优化机器，通过吮吸那些利用率最低的能量，为人类提供一个社会可扩展的连接、协作和升级的方式。
Bitcoin is a fair playing field.
BSV is the best place to be building, anywhere in the world. Any country. Any platform. Any blockchain. Anywhere.
Despite this overwhelming promise and Bitcoin still being a multi-disciplinary breakthrough, some of my idealism has faded. Maybe the shine has started to wear, or maybe it's just being on the field for 18 months without a win.
But there are many hidden corners and sacred cows of Bitcoin, like:
The stable protocol narrative builds as people whisper of hard forks.
Storing data on-chain is still a hotly debated topic.
VC vs Bootstrap vs Angel Investors (with LPs?) funding models ....who cares? put up or shut up
VC vs Bootstrap vs 天使投资者(有限合伙人)融资模式... ... 谁在乎呢? 要么行动，要么闭嘴
"Bitcoin Incentivizes Connectivity" but almost no apps work together
"Open Collaboration" turns to patent farming, land grabs and memetic competition
Platforms trying to commoditize you rather than supply chains trying to magnify you, meet the new boss, same as the old boss
BSV decoupling is great for the ecosystem until the rest of crypto starts pumping then FOMO
在加密空间的其他地方开始拉盘和 FOMO 时，BSV 解耦并孕育出独立的生态系统。
Tokenmania. Suddenly we need scammy ICO projects
Championing weird Bitcoin projects turns resentful as devs don't pump the price and don't break the law.
BSV consumers are actually investors looking to primarily increase the price of BSV, not use your app
眼下 BSV 的消费者实际上是主要希望提高 BSV 价格的投资者，而不是使用你的应用程序（的用户）。
Traditional commerce is disincentivized while BSV price is low, for HODLing, and the opportunity to pump price with free content rather than sell it and explore new monetization models.
Every app is running into The Onboarding but nobody is solving The Onboarding because we are all building the killer app that will make customers jump through hoops ...except, that's not how it works, especially when you're decoupled from major on-ramps.
每个应用都陷入了“上车”问题，但是没有人去专心拉人上车，因为我们都跑去构建一个杀手级应用程序，它能让客户跳过各种障碍... ... 但是，这不是它的工作原理，特别是当你跟币圈主流脱钩的时候。
Along the way I realized despite my interest in Bitcoin, there are some significant hurdles to building the kinds of apps that I think can make a lot of money and change the world, without dipping into scammy ICO style mania (or worse, Enterprise 😜 I kid I kid)
I grew tired of always having to say positive things about Bitcoin. Yes it's great, yes it's going to change the world, but there are some bumps along the way.
People on Twitter say "the market will figure it out" while they're watching the market trying to figure it out.
I understood better what Quarterbacks go through on Monday morning.
People who have never started a business, never created a product, never written a line of code, never talked to a customer, never made a sale, are "investment and product strategy experts" because they invest in shit coins — welcome to the Internet.
As a bootstrapper, it is very difficult to simultaneously bootstrap a network like Bitcoin while building your own company. It takes an incredibly long-term approach, especially if you're trying to grow a new market rather than building for an established one that happens to use Bitcoin.
This is one area VC shines today, being able to remain in markets full-time while they’re still developing.
The reality is despite all the promise, as a bootstrapper, Bitcoin is not a good market to build for, yet. Cashflow is King, and Bitcoin doesn't have a lot of wallets yet. But things could quickly change.
A few major improvements could break Bitcoin into the mainstream. The three biggest are:
Threshold Signatures — Never write down a mnemonic again. Never worry about losing your keys. Still non-custodial.
Stable Coins — Use your local currency digitally, without worrying about Bitcoin price swings.
Fiat On-Ramps — Buy Bitcoin as easily as Stripe, Apple Pay, Google Pay or using the App Store — anything less is a significant disadvantage for Bitcoin apps.
法币通道 ——购买比特币就像购买 Stripe、苹果支付(Apple Pay)、谷歌支付(Google Pay)或使用应用商店一样容易——对于比特币应用程序而言，只要弱一点都会造成明显的劣势。
This is "all" it will take for mainstream Bitcoin adoption.
The good news is, it's coming. I know a lot of teams are working hard on these problems.
Of all the solutions, I'm most excited about HandCash.
I've been pretty vocal about HandCash's vertically integrated approach. If they are Apple, there is an Android waiting. I lean open-source with Bitcoin and the Planaria model fits with how I want to build apps. The Linux/WordPress of Bitcoin is coming.
对于 HandCash 的垂直整合方法，我一直直言不讳。如果他们是苹果公司，那么还有一个安卓系统在等着他们。我倾向于比特币的开源模式，而 Planaria 模式符合我构建应用程序的方式。比特币的 Linux/WordPress 即将问世。
But make no doubt, HandCash is going to crush it. They've put together an incredible team, and if they can build an ecosystem that solves the three problems above, devs will flock to the platform. I will.
Bitcoin in 2020 is like the Internet in 1995.
I was optimistic that we can fast-forward the infrastructure phase. The formerly-great VC known as Union Square Ventures (before they became a central bank) had a good theory: because blockchain apps are based on open infrastructure, we're simultaneously creating the app and infrastructure layers at the same time.
But I don't think this is true.
In this case the "infrastructure layer" isn't the servers, networking, software or even the smart contracts — it's the key management and financing layer.
To that end, and I hate to say it, price pumps and DeFi have a legitimate shot at attracting consumer adoption.
为了达到这个目的，我讨厌这么说，拉盘和 DeFi 对于吸引消费者的接受来说没什么不好。
One of the biggest things people get wrong in BSV is how they dismiss things that look like toys.
在 BSV 中，人们最容易犯的错误之一就是他们忽略了那些看起来像玩具的东西。
PHP was a toy, now it powers 80% of the web.
PHP 曾经是一个玩具，现在它为80% 的网络提供动力。
Ruby on Rails was a toy that "didn't scale", now it's used in countless successful startups and Enterprises.
Ruby on Rails 曾经是一个“缺乏伸缩性”的玩具，现在它被无数成功的创业公司和企业使用。
Drones were a toy, now they're flying themselves and delivering groceries.
3d printers were a toy, now they're printing guns.
GPUs were for toys, now they're training Artificial Intelligence.
Game engines were toys, now they're modeling our whole world, and increasingly spending more and more of our time in them
YouTube was a toy, now A-list Hollywood stars chase YouTube subscribers
YouTube 曾经是一个玩具，现在一线好莱坞明星追逐着 YouTube 的订阅者
SoundCloud was a toy, but launched the careers of more rappers than any other platform.
Twitter was a toy, but the President of the United States uses it as his primary communication method.
Both ICOs and DeFi have a legitimate shot at cleaning up their act and becoming something truly transformative.
ICOs 和 DeFi 都有合法的机会清理他们的行为，成为真正的变革者。
"Worse is better" is a phenomenon that happens over and over again. What hackers are working on nights and weekends will be mainstream in 10 years.
Bitcoin is many things. But because it's been restricted, there's been an explosion of creativity on other blockchains.
What it will take to attract significant attention is people making serious money.
What that will take, is getting as many people through The Onboarding as possible, using the 3 issues above as the wedge.
The people in BSV are the strangest, weirdest, most ambitious, talented, idealistic people I've ever worked alongside.
Bitcoin offers a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make an impact in the areas you care about most while making a ton of money.
It allows our world to be more connected while empowering the individual like never before. It makes it profitable to do the right thing.
And despite all my criticisms, I remain incredibly bullish. Bitcoin really does have the power to change the world.
Sometimes criticism can be considered as negativity in BSV, because it muddies the narratives. It's hard enough to get people inside, so we shouldn't make that job any harder.
But for people building at the edge of Bitcoin, they need to be able to throw problems around openly. This isn't negativity, it's the way to find solutions.
After I wrote my piece on the problems with Storing data on Bitcoin SV, Attila announced MatterCloud will support archiving Bitcoin TXs as a service. No contracts. No phone calls. No sales meetings. No future plans. An API and a credit card field — exactly what hackers want.
在我写完关于在比特币 SV 上存储数据的问题的文章后，Attila 宣布 MatterCloud 将支持将比特币交易作为服务进行存档。没有合同。没有电话。没有销售会议。没有未来计划。一个 API 和一个信用卡字段——这正是黑客们想要的。
Bitcoin has a healthy culture of proof of work, where you don't talk too much, you just do. If you believe something could be better, you go create that solution and make a bunch of money.
I love it. The only thing I'd add is that if Bitcoin actually incentivizes connectivity, we are all headed towards doing what we do best.
To that end, we still need to communicate. Constructively criticizing Bitcoin is a significant value add to the ecosystem, as businesses and developers can spot new opportunities for solving problems the market is demanding.
If Bitcoin is what I think it is, what comes next is not just a technological, financial, software, marketplace and information system revolution — but a social one where the best aspects of humanity are magnified by people who have realized what Nakamoto Consensus really means.
A group of people are headed to the high-ground. To join them, you just have to stand up, declare yourself a Byzantine General, and take the power already given to you.
Craig Voice The power is in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin enables an explosion of creativity larger than the original Internet.
And if you're not paying attention, you might not be anticipating what comes next.
- 顾露 (Gu Lu) 于免成居
- 时间: 2020-09-24
- 编号: B-006-2009
- 本文遵循 Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 4.0 许可协议。
- 永久链接 https://gulu-dev.com/post/2020/2020-09-24-what-comes-next