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An interesting comparison:

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2017 would be a big year for Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is somewhere nearby $4000 on [2017-08-13 08:37], and it wouldn't surprise me if it reaches $5000 sometime before November (the deployment of "the 2MB part"). Beyond the price bubble (which is on its way), it's highly possible that more hard-forks would show up at the end of the year, and the price of the longest POW chain (the Bitcoin by its definition) might fall back to $1200-$1500.


3 potential possibilities for the next six-months from my perspective:

  1. Segwit2x wins (> 80%). Bitcoin starts a new era to scale periodically.

    • Core(and the LN side chain solution) would be marginalized to be an enterprise-level solution provider.
    • The future of Bitcoin development would be directed by "the Knights of the Round Table".
    • New BIPs would be more business-driven than tech-driven (which is a "maturity sign" to Bitcoin).
  2. Three (or more) forks live peacefully and separately. Bitcoin would become a more generalized concept of Bitcoin Family spectrum distribution.

    • "the Family" consists of Core, btc1, Bitcoin ABC, etc...
    • It would be a quite different model to "Linux Kernel and Distributions", since there isn't a single "root" to drive the development and longterm vision.
  3. Core wins (> 80%). The primary blockchain is locked at 1MB limit and fully controlled by Core.

    • It's highly possible that Core is (and would be) the most strong dev-team on the planet.
    • It's very likely that new emerging forks would make mistakes (especially when they are moving away from the most sophisticated implementation)
    • Core would try its best to exploit any chance of vulnerabilities of the alternatives to strive to survive.

Gu Lu

  • Written in 1.5h on [2017-08-13] at $4034.89 on Coindesk.
  • Arguments in this article don't provide any form of financial advices for readers.
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本作品由Gu Lu创作,采用知识共享Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 国际许可协议进行许可。